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Port Adelaide Pirates vs Adelaide Raiders — South Australia State League 1 2021

Port Adelaide Pirates
Port Adelaide Pirates
FT
1 – 2
Adelaide Raiders
Adelaide Raiders
4/1/2023South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 6Ngarrpadla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Port Adelaide Pirates26%
×Draw20%
Adelaide Raiders53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Adelaide Pirates
1.52
Adelaide Raiders
2.22

Adelaide Raiders creates 46% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 33 away

creates per match

Port Adelaide Pirates
1.32
Adelaide Raiders
2.09

allows per match

Port Adelaide Pirates
2.36
Adelaide Raiders
1.73

finishing

Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par
Adelaide Raiders+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Adelaide Pirates ↓

Adelaide Raiders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Port Adelaide Pirates or draw
47%
Port Adelaide Pirates or Adelaide Raiders
80%
Draw or Adelaide Raiders
74%

Winning margin

Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+
12%
Adelaide Raiders wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals
78%
Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals
45%
Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals
20%
Adelaide Raiders 1+ goals
89%
Adelaide Raiders 2+ goals
65%
Adelaide Raiders 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)
33%
Adelaide Raiders (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Adelaide Pirates at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

Adelaide Raiders away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + Adelaide Raiders defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Adelaide Raiders attack 2.09 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Port Adelaide Pirates scores more
26%
level
20%
Adelaide Raiders scores more
53%

Adelaide Raiders at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Adelaide Raiders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Port Adelaide Pirates vs Adelaide Raiders

Adelaide Raiders beat Port Adelaide Pirates 2-1 in South Australia State League 1 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Ngarrpadla in Adelaide.