Adelaide Raiders 6–1 Port Adelaide Pirates

Adelaide Raiders

FT

6 – 1

Port Adelaide Pirates

6/17/2023

South Australia State League 1 · Round 17Croatian Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Adelaide Raiders63%

×Draw18%

Port Adelaide Pirates18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adelaide RaidersExpected goals in this matchPort Adelaide Pirates

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.29

Adelaide Raiders

2.51

Port Adelaide Pirates

1.29

Adelaide Raiders creates 95% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 22 away

2.53

creates per match

1.32

1.25

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Adelaide Raiders

2.53

Port Adelaide Pirates

1.32

allows per match

Adelaide Raiders

1.25

Port Adelaide Pirates

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adelaide Raiders+0.00on par

Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Raiders ↓

Port Adelaide Pirates →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Adelaide Raiders or draw

82%

Adelaide Raiders or Port Adelaide Pirates

82%

Draw or Port Adelaide Pirates

37%

Winning margin

Adelaide Raiders wins by 2+

42%

Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Adelaide Raiders 1+ goals

92%

Adelaide Raiders 2+ goals

71%

Adelaide Raiders 3+ goals

45%

Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals

72%

Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals

37%

Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Raiders (draw refunded)

78%

Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Raiders at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

Port Adelaide Pirates away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Raiders attack 2.53 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.51

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + Adelaide Raiders defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Adelaide Raiders scores more

63%

level

18%

Port Adelaide Pirates scores more

18%

Adelaide Raiders at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Adelaide Raiders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff