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Port Adelaide Pirates vs Adelaide Hills Hawks — South Australia State League 1 2021

Port Adelaide Pirates
Port Adelaide Pirates
FT
3 – 0
Adelaide Hills Hawks
Adelaide Hills Hawks
4/2/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 6Taperoo Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Port Adelaide Pirates41%
×Draw23%
Adelaide Hills Hawks37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Adelaide Pirates
1.77
Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Port Adelaide Pirates
1.32
Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.00

allows per match

Port Adelaide Pirates
2.36
Adelaide Hills Hawks
2.23

finishing

Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par
Adelaide Hills Hawks+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Adelaide Pirates ↓

Adelaide Hills Hawks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Port Adelaide Pirates or draw
63%
Port Adelaide Pirates or Adelaide Hills Hawks
77%
Draw or Adelaide Hills Hawks
59%

Winning margin

Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+
21%
Adelaide Hills Hawks wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals
83%
Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals
53%
Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals
26%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 1+ goals
81%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 2+ goals
50%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)
52%
Adelaide Hills Hawks (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Adelaide Pirates at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

Adelaide Hills Hawks away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + Adelaide Hills Hawks defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.77

Adelaide Hills Hawks attack 1.00 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Port Adelaide Pirates scores more
41%
level
23%
Adelaide Hills Hawks scores more
37%

Port Adelaide Pirates at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Port Adelaide Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Port Adelaide Pirates vs Adelaide Hills Hawks

Port Adelaide Pirates beat Adelaide Hills Hawks 3-0 in South Australia State League 1 on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Taperoo Reserve in Adelaide.