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Adelaide Hills Hawks vs Port Adelaide Pirates — South Australia State League 1 2021

Adelaide Hills Hawks
Adelaide Hills Hawks
FT
1 – 2
Port Adelaide Pirates
Port Adelaide Pirates
7/2/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 17Hawks Nest

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Adelaide Hills Hawks44%
×Draw22%
Port Adelaide Pirates34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.84
Port Adelaide Pirates
1.59

Adelaide Hills Hawks creates 16% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.18
Port Adelaide Pirates
1.32

allows per match

Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.86
Port Adelaide Pirates
2.50

finishing

Adelaide Hills Hawks+0.00on par
Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Hills Hawks ↓

Port Adelaide Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Adelaide Hills Hawks or draw
66%
Adelaide Hills Hawks or Port Adelaide Pirates
78%
Draw or Port Adelaide Pirates
56%

Winning margin

Adelaide Hills Hawks wins by 2+
24%
Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Adelaide Hills Hawks 1+ goals
84%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 2+ goals
55%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 3+ goals
28%
Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals
80%
Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals
47%
Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Hills Hawks (draw refunded)
57%
Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Hills Hawks at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

Port Adelaide Pirates away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Hills Hawks attack 1.18 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.84

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + Adelaide Hills Hawks defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Adelaide Hills Hawks scores more
44%
level
22%
Port Adelaide Pirates scores more
34%

Adelaide Hills Hawks at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Adelaide Hills Hawks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Adelaide Hills Hawks 1–2 Port Adelaide Pirates

Port Adelaide Pirates beat Adelaide Hills Hawks 2-1 in South Australia State League 1 on July 2, 2022.

The match was played at Hawks Nest in Woodside.