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Port Adelaide Pirates vs Adelaide Blue Eagles — South Australia State League 1 2021

Port Adelaide Pirates
Port Adelaide Pirates
FT
0 – 2
Adelaide Blue Eagles
Adelaide Blue Eagles
4/6/2023South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 7Ngarrpadla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Port Adelaide Pirates26%
×Draw21%
Adelaide Blue Eagles53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Adelaide Pirates
1.45
Adelaide Blue Eagles
2.13

Adelaide Blue Eagles creates 47% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 53 away

creates per match

Port Adelaide Pirates
1.32
Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.89

allows per match

Port Adelaide Pirates
2.36
Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.58

finishing

Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par
Adelaide Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Adelaide Pirates ↓

Adelaide Blue Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Port Adelaide Pirates or draw
47%
Port Adelaide Pirates or Adelaide Blue Eagles
79%
Draw or Adelaide Blue Eagles
74%

Winning margin

Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+
12%
Adelaide Blue Eagles wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals
77%
Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals
42%
Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals
18%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 1+ goals
88%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 2+ goals
63%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)
33%
Adelaide Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Adelaide Pirates at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

Adelaide Blue Eagles away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.58 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + Adelaide Blue Eagles defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Adelaide Blue Eagles attack 1.89 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Port Adelaide Pirates scores more
26%
level
21%
Adelaide Blue Eagles scores more
53%

Adelaide Blue Eagles at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Adelaide Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Port Adelaide Pirates vs Adelaide Blue Eagles

Adelaide Blue Eagles beat Port Adelaide Pirates 2-0 in South Australia State League 1 on April 6, 2023.

The match was played at Ngarrpadla in Adelaide.