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Adelaide Blue Eagles vs Port Adelaide Pirates — South Australia State League 1 2021

Adelaide Blue Eagles
Adelaide Blue Eagles
FT
3 – 0
Port Adelaide Pirates
Port Adelaide Pirates
7/30/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 20Marden Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Adelaide Blue Eagles61%
×Draw19%
Port Adelaide Pirates20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Blue Eagles
2.37
Port Adelaide Pirates
1.31

Adelaide Blue Eagles creates 81% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 22 away

creates per match

Adelaide Blue Eagles
2.24
Port Adelaide Pirates
1.32

allows per match

Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.29
Port Adelaide Pirates
2.50

finishing

Adelaide Blue Eagles+0.00on par
Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Blue Eagles ↓

Port Adelaide Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Adelaide Blue Eagles or draw
80%
Adelaide Blue Eagles or Port Adelaide Pirates
81%
Draw or Port Adelaide Pirates
39%

Winning margin

Adelaide Blue Eagles wins by 2+
39%
Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Adelaide Blue Eagles 1+ goals
91%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 2+ goals
68%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 3+ goals
42%
Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals
73%
Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals
38%
Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
75%
Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Blue Eagles at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

Port Adelaide Pirates away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Blue Eagles attack 2.24 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.37

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + Adelaide Blue Eagles defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Adelaide Blue Eagles scores more
61%
level
19%
Port Adelaide Pirates scores more
20%

Adelaide Blue Eagles at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Adelaide Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Adelaide Blue Eagles 3–0 Port Adelaide Pirates

Adelaide Blue Eagles beat Port Adelaide Pirates 3-0 in South Australia State League 1 on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at Marden Sports Complex in Adelaide.