Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pors Grenland vs Mjøndalen II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Pors Grenland
Pors Grenland
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mjøndalen II
Mjøndalen II
9/18/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 20Pors Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pors Grenland68%
×Draw17%
Mjøndalen II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pors Grenland
2.62
Mjøndalen II
1.18

Pors Grenland creates 122% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Pors Grenland
2.46
Mjøndalen II
1.08

allows per match

Pors Grenland
1.27
Mjøndalen II
2.77

finishing

Pors Grenland+0.00on par
Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pors Grenland ↓

Mjøndalen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Pors Grenland or draw
85%
Pors Grenland or Mjøndalen II
83%
Draw or Mjøndalen II
32%

Winning margin

Pors Grenland wins by 2+
46%
Mjøndalen II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pors Grenland 1+ goals
93%
Pors Grenland 2+ goals
73%
Pors Grenland 3+ goals
48%
Mjøndalen II 1+ goals
69%
Mjøndalen II 2+ goals
33%
Mjøndalen II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pors Grenland (draw refunded)
82%
Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pors Grenland at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pors Grenland attack 2.46 + Mjøndalen II defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.62

Mjøndalen II attack 1.08 + Pors Grenland defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Pors Grenland scores more
68%
level
17%
Mjøndalen II scores more
15%

Pors Grenland at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Pors Grenland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Pors Grenland 3–2 Mjøndalen II

Pors Grenland beat Mjøndalen II 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on September 18, 2023.

The match was played at Pors Stadion in Porsgrunn.