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Mjøndalen II vs Pors Grenland — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Mjøndalen II
Mjøndalen II
FT
2 – 8
Pors Grenland
Pors Grenland
5/14/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 6Consto Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mjøndalen II27%
×Draw19%
Pors Grenland54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjøndalen II
1.80
Pors Grenland
2.59

Pors Grenland creates 44% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Mjøndalen II
2.23
Pors Grenland
2.81

allows per match

Mjøndalen II
2.38
Pors Grenland
1.38

finishing

Mjøndalen II+0.00on par
Pors Grenland+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjøndalen II ↓

Pors Grenland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Mjøndalen II or draw
46%
Mjøndalen II or Pors Grenland
81%
Draw or Pors Grenland
73%

Winning margin

Mjøndalen II wins by 2+
13%
Pors Grenland wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Mjøndalen II 1+ goals
83%
Mjøndalen II 2+ goals
54%
Mjøndalen II 3+ goals
27%
Pors Grenland 1+ goals
92%
Pors Grenland 2+ goals
73%
Pors Grenland 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)
33%
Pors Grenland (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjøndalen II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Pors Grenland away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjøndalen II attack 2.23 + Pors Grenland defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.80

Pors Grenland attack 2.81 + Mjøndalen II defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mjøndalen II scores more
27%
level
19%
Pors Grenland scores more
54%

Pors Grenland at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Pors Grenland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mjøndalen II vs Pors Grenland

Pors Grenland beat Mjøndalen II 8-2 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Consto Arena in Mjøndalen.