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Pors Grenland vs Fredrikstad II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Pors Grenland
Pors Grenland
FT
3 – 1
Fredrikstad II
Fredrikstad II
5/1/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 4Pors Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Pors Grenland53%
×Draw20%
Fredrikstad II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pors Grenland
2.41
Fredrikstad II
1.70

Pors Grenland creates 42% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Pors Grenland
2.46
Fredrikstad II
2.12

allows per match

Pors Grenland
1.27
Fredrikstad II
2.35

finishing

Pors Grenland+0.00on par
Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pors Grenland ↓

Fredrikstad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Pors Grenland or draw
73%
Pors Grenland or Fredrikstad II
80%
Draw or Fredrikstad II
47%

Winning margin

Pors Grenland wins by 2+
33%
Fredrikstad II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pors Grenland 1+ goals
91%
Pors Grenland 2+ goals
69%
Pors Grenland 3+ goals
43%
Fredrikstad II 1+ goals
82%
Fredrikstad II 2+ goals
51%
Fredrikstad II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Pors Grenland (draw refunded)
66%
Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pors Grenland at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Fredrikstad II away — creates 2.12, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pors Grenland attack 2.46 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.41

Fredrikstad II attack 2.12 + Pors Grenland defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pors Grenland scores more
53%
level
20%
Fredrikstad II scores more
27%

Pors Grenland at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pors Grenland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pors Grenland vs Fredrikstad II

Pors Grenland beat Fredrikstad II 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on May 1, 2023.

The match was played at Pors Stadion in Porsgrunn.