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Fredrikstad II vs Pors Grenland — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Fredrikstad II
Fredrikstad II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pors Grenland
Pors Grenland
9/18/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 21Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Fredrikstad II34%
×Draw22%
Pors Grenland45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fredrikstad II
1.71
Pors Grenland
2.00

Pors Grenland creates 17% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Fredrikstad II
2.04
Pors Grenland
2.81

allows per match

Fredrikstad II
1.19
Pors Grenland
1.38

finishing

Fredrikstad II+0.00on par
Pors Grenland+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad II ↓

Pors Grenland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Fredrikstad II or draw
55%
Fredrikstad II or Pors Grenland
78%
Draw or Pors Grenland
66%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad II wins by 2+
17%
Pors Grenland wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Fredrikstad II 1+ goals
82%
Fredrikstad II 2+ goals
51%
Fredrikstad II 3+ goals
24%
Pors Grenland 1+ goals
86%
Pors Grenland 2+ goals
59%
Pors Grenland 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)
43%
Pors Grenland (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Pors Grenland away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad II attack 2.04 + Pors Grenland defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.71

Pors Grenland attack 2.81 + Fredrikstad II defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fredrikstad II scores more
34%
level
22%
Pors Grenland scores more
45%

Pors Grenland at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pors Grenland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Fredrikstad II 1–1 Pors Grenland

Fredrikstad II and Pors Grenland drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion in Fredrikstad.