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Pors Grenland II vs Drøbak / Frogn — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Pors Grenland II
Pors Grenland II
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 0
Drøbak / Frogn
Drøbak / Frogn
8/2/20253. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 14Pors 2 KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pors Grenland II31%
×Draw21%
Drøbak / Frogn48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pors Grenland II
1.71
Drøbak / Frogn
2.17

Drøbak / Frogn creates 27% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Pors Grenland II
1.31
Drøbak / Frogn
1.80

allows per match

Pors Grenland II
2.54
Drøbak / Frogn
2.10

finishing

Pors Grenland II+0.00on par
Drøbak / Frogn+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pors Grenland II ↓

Drøbak / Frogn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Pors Grenland II or draw
52%
Pors Grenland II or Drøbak / Frogn
79%
Draw or Drøbak / Frogn
69%

Winning margin

Pors Grenland II wins by 2+
15%
Drøbak / Frogn wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Pors Grenland II 1+ goals
82%
Pors Grenland II 2+ goals
51%
Pors Grenland II 3+ goals
24%
Drøbak / Frogn 1+ goals
89%
Drøbak / Frogn 2+ goals
64%
Drøbak / Frogn 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Pors Grenland II (draw refunded)
39%
Drøbak / Frogn (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pors Grenland II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Drøbak / Frogn away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pors Grenland II attack 1.31 + Drøbak / Frogn defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.71

Drøbak / Frogn attack 1.80 + Pors Grenland II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pors Grenland II scores more
31%
level
21%
Drøbak / Frogn scores more
48%

Drøbak / Frogn at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Drøbak / Frogn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pors Grenland II vs Drøbak / Frogn

Drøbak / Frogn beat Pors Grenland II 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on August 2, 2025.

The match was played at Pors 2 KG in Porsgrunn.