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Drøbak / Frogn vs Pors Grenland II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Drøbak / Frogn
Drøbak / Frogn
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pors Grenland II
Pors Grenland II
4/26/20253. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 4Seiersten stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Drøbak / Frogn74%
×Draw14%
Pors Grenland II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drøbak / Frogn
3.06
Pors Grenland II
1.16

Drøbak / Frogn creates 164% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

creates per match

Drøbak / Frogn
1.50
Pors Grenland II
0.92

allows per match

Drøbak / Frogn
1.39
Pors Grenland II
4.62

finishing

Drøbak / Frogn+0.00on par
Pors Grenland II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drøbak / Frogn ↓

Pors Grenland II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Drøbak / Frogn or draw
88%
Drøbak / Frogn or Pors Grenland II
86%
Draw or Pors Grenland II
26%

Winning margin

Drøbak / Frogn wins by 2+
55%
Pors Grenland II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Drøbak / Frogn 1+ goals
95%
Drøbak / Frogn 2+ goals
80%
Drøbak / Frogn 3+ goals
57%
Pors Grenland II 1+ goals
69%
Pors Grenland II 2+ goals
32%
Pors Grenland II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Drøbak / Frogn (draw refunded)
87%
Pors Grenland II (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drøbak / Frogn at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Pors Grenland II away — creates 0.92, concedes 4.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drøbak / Frogn attack 1.50 + Pors Grenland II defence 4.62 → ÷2 → 3.06

Pors Grenland II attack 0.92 + Drøbak / Frogn defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Drøbak / Frogn scores more
74%
level
14%
Pors Grenland II scores more
12%

Drøbak / Frogn at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Drøbak / Frogn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Drøbak / Frogn 1–1 Pors Grenland II

Drøbak / Frogn and Pors Grenland II drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Seiersten stadion in Drøbak.