Porreres 0–2 Penya Independent: Result & Stats

Porreres

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Penya Independent

10/20/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 7Campo de fútbol porreres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Porreres41%

×Draw30%

Penya Independent29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PorreresExpected goals in this matchPenya Independent

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.93

Porreres

1.16

Penya Independent

0.93

Porreres creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 32 away

1.41

creates per match

1.09

0.76

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Porreres

1.41

Penya Independent

1.09

allows per match

Porreres

0.76

Penya Independent

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Porreres+0.00on par

Penya Independent+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porreres ↓

Penya Independent →

0–012%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Porreres or draw

71%

Porreres or Penya Independent

70%

Draw or Penya Independent

59%

Winning margin

Porreres wins by 2+

17%

Penya Independent wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Porreres 1+ goals

69%

Porreres 2+ goals

32%

Porreres 3+ goals

11%

Penya Independent 1+ goals

61%

Penya Independent 2+ goals

24%

Penya Independent 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Porreres (draw refunded)

58%

Penya Independent (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Porreres at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Penya Independent away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Porreres attack 1.41 + Penya Independent defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.16

Penya Independent attack 1.09 + Porreres defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Porreres scores more

41%

level

30%

Penya Independent scores more

29%

Porreres at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Porreres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff