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Penya Independent vs Porreres — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Penya Independent
Penya Independent
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Porreres
Porreres
3/1/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 24Camp de Futbol Municipal de Sant Miquel de Balansat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Penya Independent49%
×Draw24%
Porreres27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penya Independent
1.73
Porreres
1.24

Penya Independent creates 40% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 17 away

creates per match

Penya Independent
2.34
Porreres
1.59

allows per match

Penya Independent
0.88
Porreres
1.12

finishing

Penya Independent+0.00on par
Porreres+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penya Independent ↓

Porreres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Penya Independent or draw
73%
Penya Independent or Porreres
76%
Draw or Porreres
51%

Winning margin

Penya Independent wins by 2+
26%
Porreres wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Penya Independent 1+ goals
82%
Penya Independent 2+ goals
52%
Penya Independent 3+ goals
25%
Porreres 1+ goals
71%
Porreres 2+ goals
35%
Porreres 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Penya Independent (draw refunded)
64%
Porreres (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penya Independent at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

Porreres away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penya Independent attack 2.34 + Porreres defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.73

Porreres attack 1.59 + Penya Independent defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Penya Independent scores more
49%
level
24%
Porreres scores more
27%

Penya Independent at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Penya Independent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Penya Independent 3–2 Porreres

Penya Independent beat Porreres 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Municipal de Sant Miquel de Balansat in Sant Miquel de Balansat.