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Poříčany vs Benátky nad Jizerou — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Poříčany
Poříčany
CANC
14:30
Benátky nad Jizerou
Benátky nad Jizerou
4/10/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 19Poříčany - tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Poříčany32%
×Draw23%
Benátky nad Jizerou45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poříčany
1.43
Benátky nad Jizerou
1.75

Benátky nad Jizerou creates 22% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 55 away

creates per match

Poříčany
1.60
Benátky nad Jizerou
1.71

allows per match

Poříčany
1.80
Benátky nad Jizerou
1.25

finishing

Poříčany+0.00on par
Benátky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poříčany ↓

Benátky nad Jizerou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Poříčany or draw
55%
Poříčany or Benátky nad Jizerou
77%
Draw or Benátky nad Jizerou
68%

Winning margin

Poříčany wins by 2+
14%
Benátky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Poříčany 1+ goals
76%
Poříčany 2+ goals
42%
Poříčany 3+ goals
17%
Benátky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
83%
Benátky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
52%
Benátky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Poříčany (draw refunded)
41%
Benátky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poříčany at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

Benátky nad Jizerou away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poříčany attack 1.60 + Benátky nad Jizerou defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Benátky nad Jizerou attack 1.71 + Poříčany defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Poříčany scores more
32%
level
23%
Benátky nad Jizerou scores more
45%

Benátky nad Jizerou at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Benátky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Poříčany face Benátky nad Jizerou (4. liga - Divizie C)

4. liga - Divizie C returns with Poříčany hosting Benátky nad Jizerou. Match starts April 10, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Poříčany host Benátky nad Jizerou at Poříčany - tráva.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.