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Benátky nad Jizerou vs Poříčany — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Benátky nad Jizerou
Benátky nad Jizerou
FT
2 – 1
Poříčany
Poříčany
9/13/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 4Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Benátky nad Jizerou73%
×Draw16%
Poříčany11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benátky nad Jizerou
2.58
Poříčany
0.89

Benátky nad Jizerou creates 190% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 26 away

creates per match

Benátky nad Jizerou
2.40
Poříčany
0.92

allows per match

Benátky nad Jizerou
0.85
Poříčany
2.77

finishing

Benátky nad Jizerou+0.00on par
Poříčany+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benátky nad Jizerou ↓

Poříčany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Benátky nad Jizerou or draw
89%
Benátky nad Jizerou or Poříčany
84%
Draw or Poříčany
27%

Winning margin

Benátky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
51%
Poříčany wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Benátky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
92%
Benátky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
72%
Benátky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
47%
Poříčany 1+ goals
59%
Poříčany 2+ goals
22%
Poříčany 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Benátky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
87%
Poříčany (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benátky nad Jizerou at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.85 · 55 matches

Poříčany away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benátky nad Jizerou attack 2.40 + Poříčany defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.58

Poříčany attack 0.92 + Benátky nad Jizerou defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Benátky nad Jizerou scores more
73%
level
16%
Poříčany scores more
11%

Benátky nad Jizerou at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Benátky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benátky nad Jizerou vs Poříčany

Benátky nad Jizerou beat Poříčany 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Benátky nad Jizerou.