Pordenone U19 2–2 Como U19: Result & Stats

Pordenone U19

FT

2 – 2

Como U19

2/4/2023

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 17Stadio Ottavio Bottecchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Pordenone U1919%

×Draw20%

Como U1961%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pordenone U19Expected goals in this matchComo U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

2.20

Pordenone U19

1.15

Como U19

2.20

Como U19 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 73 away

0.97

creates per match

2.08

2.31

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Pordenone U19

0.97

Como U19

2.08

allows per match

Pordenone U19

2.31

Como U19

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pordenone U19+0.00on par

Como U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pordenone U19 ↓

Como U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Pordenone U19 or draw

39%

Pordenone U19 or Como U19

80%

Draw or Como U19

81%

Winning margin

Pordenone U19 wins by 2+

7%

Como U19 wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Pordenone U19 1+ goals

68%

Pordenone U19 2+ goals

32%

Pordenone U19 3+ goals

11%

Como U19 1+ goals

89%

Como U19 2+ goals

64%

Como U19 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Pordenone U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Como U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pordenone U19 at home — creates 0.97, concedes 2.31 · 39 matches

Como U19 away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.33 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pordenone U19 attack 0.97 + Como U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Como U19 attack 2.08 + Pordenone U19 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Pordenone U19 scores more

19%

level

20%

Como U19 scores more

61%

Como U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Como U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff