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Como U19 vs Pordenone U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Como U19
Como U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Pordenone U19
Pordenone U19
12/22/2021Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 12Campo Sportivo Lambrone

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Como U1954%
×Draw21%
Pordenone U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Como U19
2.17
Pordenone U19
1.44

Como U19 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 39 away

creates per match

Como U19
1.97
Pordenone U19
1.18

allows per match

Como U19
1.70
Pordenone U19
2.36

finishing

Como U19+0.00on par
Pordenone U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Como U19 ↓

Pordenone U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Como U19 or draw
75%
Como U19 or Pordenone U19
79%
Draw or Pordenone U19
46%

Winning margin

Como U19 wins by 2+
32%
Pordenone U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Como U19 1+ goals
89%
Como U19 2+ goals
64%
Como U19 3+ goals
36%
Pordenone U19 1+ goals
76%
Pordenone U19 2+ goals
42%
Pordenone U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Como U19 (draw refunded)
68%
Pordenone U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Como U19 at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.70 · 74 matches

Pordenone U19 away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Como U19 attack 1.97 + Pordenone U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.17

Pordenone U19 attack 1.18 + Como U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Como U19 scores more
54%
level
21%
Pordenone U19 scores more
25%

Como U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Como U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Como U19 vs Pordenone U19

Como U19 beat Pordenone U19 4-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on December 22, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Lambrone in Erba.