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Porcelana vs Benfica Luanda — Girabola 2025

Porcelana
Porcelana
FT
0 – 0
Benfica Luanda
Benfica Luanda
5/11/2013GirabolaGirabola · Round 11Estádio Santos Dinizes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Porcelana24%
×Draw35%
Benfica Luanda41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Porcelana
0.63
Benfica Luanda
0.93

Benfica Luanda creates 48% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Porcelana
0.33
Benfica Luanda
0.86

allows per match

Porcelana
1.00
Benfica Luanda
0.93

finishing

Porcelana+0.00on par
Benfica Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porcelana ↓

Benfica Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–120%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
21%79%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Porcelana or draw
59%
Porcelana or Benfica Luanda
65%
Draw or Benfica Luanda
76%

Winning margin

Porcelana wins by 2+
6%
Benfica Luanda wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Porcelana 1+ goals
47%
Porcelana 2+ goals
13%
Porcelana 3+ goals
3%
Benfica Luanda 1+ goals
61%
Benfica Luanda 2+ goals
24%
Benfica Luanda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Porcelana (draw refunded)
37%
Benfica Luanda (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porcelana at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Benfica Luanda away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porcelana attack 0.33 + Benfica Luanda defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.63

Benfica Luanda attack 0.86 + Porcelana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Porcelana scores more
24%
level
35%
Benfica Luanda scores more
41%

Benfica Luanda at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Benfica Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Porcelana 0–0 Benfica Luanda

Porcelana and Benfica Luanda drew 0-0 in Girabola on May 11, 2013.

The match was played at Estádio Santos Dinizes.