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Benfica Luanda vs Porcelana — Girabola 2025

Benfica Luanda
Benfica Luanda
CANC
15:00
Porcelana
Porcelana
8/5/2016GirabolaGirabola · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Benfica Luanda48%
×Draw31%
Porcelana21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica Luanda
1.17
Porcelana
0.67

Benfica Luanda creates 75% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Benfica Luanda
1.00
Porcelana
0.33

allows per match

Benfica Luanda
1.00
Porcelana
1.33

finishing

Benfica Luanda+0.00on par
Porcelana+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica Luanda ↓

Porcelana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Benfica Luanda or draw
79%
Benfica Luanda or Porcelana
69%
Draw or Porcelana
52%

Winning margin

Benfica Luanda wins by 2+
21%
Porcelana wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Benfica Luanda 1+ goals
69%
Benfica Luanda 2+ goals
33%
Benfica Luanda 3+ goals
11%
Porcelana 1+ goals
49%
Porcelana 2+ goals
15%
Porcelana 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Benfica Luanda (draw refunded)
69%
Porcelana (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica Luanda at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Porcelana away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica Luanda attack 1.00 + Porcelana defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Porcelana attack 0.33 + Benfica Luanda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Benfica Luanda scores more
48%
level
31%
Porcelana scores more
21%

Benfica Luanda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Benfica Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Benfica Luanda face Porcelana (Girabola)

Girabola returns with Benfica Luanda hosting Porcelana. Match starts August 5, 2016. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.