Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Poprad W vs Petržalka W — I Liga - Women 2020

Poprad W
Poprad W
FT
0 – 3
Petržalka W
Petržalka W
10/10/2020I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 6Futbalový Štadión FK Poprad - Veľká

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Poprad W12%
×Draw13%
Petržalka W76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poprad W
1.49
Petržalka W
3.69

Petržalka W creates 148% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 69 away

creates per match

Poprad W
0.33
Petržalka W
1.38

allows per match

Poprad W
6.00
Petržalka W
2.65

finishing

Poprad W+0.00on par
Petržalka W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poprad W ↓

Petržalka W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Poprad W or draw
24%
Poprad W or Petržalka W
87%
Draw or Petržalka W
88%

Winning margin

Poprad W wins by 2+
5%
Petržalka W wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

Poprad W 1+ goals
77%
Poprad W 2+ goals
44%
Poprad W 3+ goals
19%
Petržalka W 1+ goals
97%
Petržalka W 2+ goals
87%
Petržalka W 3+ goals
69%

Draw no bet

Poprad W (draw refunded)
14%
Petržalka W (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poprad W at home — creates 0.33, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

Petržalka W away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.65 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poprad W attack 0.33 + Petržalka W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.49

Petržalka W attack 1.38 + Poprad W defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 3.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Poprad W scores more
12%
level
13%
Petržalka W scores more
76%

Petržalka W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Petržalka W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga - Women: Poprad W 0–3 Petržalka W

Petržalka W beat Poprad W 3-0 in I Liga - Women on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový Štadión FK Poprad - Veľká in Poprad.