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Petržalka W vs Poprad W — I Liga - Women 2020

Petržalka W
Petržalka W
CANC
15:00
Poprad W
Poprad W
5/16/2021I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 15Štadión FC Petržalka 1898

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Petržalka W78%
×Draw12%
Poprad W9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petržalka W
3.41
Poprad W
1.16

Petržalka W creates 194% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 3 away

creates per match

Petržalka W
1.48
Poprad W
0.00

allows per match

Petržalka W
2.31
Poprad W
5.33

finishing

Petržalka W+0.00on par
Poprad W+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petržalka W ↓

Poprad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Petržalka W or draw
91%
Petržalka W or Poprad W
88%
Draw or Poprad W
22%

Winning margin

Petržalka W wins by 2+
60%
Poprad W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Petržalka W 1+ goals
96%
Petržalka W 2+ goals
85%
Petržalka W 3+ goals
64%
Poprad W 1+ goals
69%
Poprad W 2+ goals
32%
Poprad W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Petržalka W (draw refunded)
89%
Poprad W (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petržalka W at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.31 · 67 matches

Poprad W away — creates 0.00, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petržalka W attack 1.48 + Poprad W defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 3.41

Poprad W attack 0.00 + Petržalka W defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Petržalka W scores more
78%
level
12%
Poprad W scores more
9%

Petržalka W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Petržalka W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Petržalka W face Poprad W (I Liga - Women)

I Liga - Women returns with Petržalka W hosting Poprad W. Match starts May 16, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Petržalka W host Poprad W at Štadión FC Petržalka 1898.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.