Poprad W vs Dukla Banská Bystrica W

Poprad W

CANC

13:00

Dukla Banská Bystrica W

5/29/2021

I Liga - Women · Round 17Futbalový štadión Spišská Teplica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Poprad W21%

×Draw15%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Poprad WExpected goals in this matchDukla Banská Bystrica W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

3.61

Poprad W

2.11

Dukla Banská Bystrica W

3.61

Dukla Banská Bystrica W creates 71% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 55 away

0.33

creates per match

1.22

6.00

allows per match

3.89

creates per match

Poprad W

0.33

Dukla Banská Bystrica W

1.22

allows per match

Poprad W

6.00

Dukla Banská Bystrica W

3.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poprad W+0.00on par

Dukla Banská Bystrica W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poprad W ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–33%

0–43%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–36%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–46%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–34%

3–44%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

81%19%4.5

65%35%

Double chance

Poprad W or draw

36%

Poprad W or Dukla Banská Bystrica W

85%

Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica W

79%

Winning margin

Poprad W wins by 2+

10%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Poprad W 1+ goals

88%

Poprad W 2+ goals

62%

Poprad W 3+ goals

35%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W 1+ goals

97%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W 2+ goals

87%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W 3+ goals

67%

Draw no bet

Poprad W (draw refunded)

25%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

83%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poprad W at home — creates 0.33, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica W away — creates 1.22, concedes 3.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poprad W attack 0.33 + Dukla Banská Bystrica W defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 2.11

Dukla Banská Bystrica W attack 1.22 + Poprad W defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 3.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Poprad W scores more

21%

level

15%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W scores more

64%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Dukla Banská Bystrica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff