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Dukla Banská Bystrica W vs Poprad W — I Liga - Women 2020

Dukla Banská Bystrica W
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
CANC
10:00
Poprad W
Poprad W
10/31/2020I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 8Futbalový Štadión Radvaň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica W76%
×Draw13%
Poprad W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Banská Bystrica W
3.46
Poprad W
1.35

Dukla Banská Bystrica W creates 156% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 3 away

creates per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica W
1.58
Poprad W
0.00

allows per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica W
2.71
Poprad W
5.33

finishing

Dukla Banská Bystrica W+0.00on par
Poprad W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Banská Bystrica W ↓

Poprad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Dukla Banská Bystrica W or draw
89%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W or Poprad W
87%
Draw or Poprad W
24%

Winning margin

Dukla Banská Bystrica W wins by 2+
57%
Poprad W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dukla Banská Bystrica W 1+ goals
97%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 2+ goals
85%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 3+ goals
65%
Poprad W 1+ goals
74%
Poprad W 2+ goals
39%
Poprad W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dukla Banská Bystrica W (draw refunded)
87%
Poprad W (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Banská Bystrica W at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.71 · 55 matches

Poprad W away — creates 0.00, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Banská Bystrica W attack 1.58 + Poprad W defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 3.46

Poprad W attack 0.00 + Dukla Banská Bystrica W defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Dukla Banská Bystrica W scores more
76%
level
13%
Poprad W scores more
11%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Dukla Banská Bystrica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dukla Banská Bystrica W vs Poprad W — Match Preview

Dukla Banská Bystrica W face Poprad W on October 31, 2020 in this I Liga - Women fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dukla Banská Bystrica W host Poprad W at Futbalový Štadión Radvaň.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.