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Poprad vs Pokrok Krompachy — 3. liga - East 2020

Poprad
Poprad
FT
5 – 1
Pokrok Krompachy
Pokrok Krompachy
9/4/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 7Futbalový štadion NTC Poprad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Poprad76%
×Draw15%
Pokrok Krompachy9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poprad
2.60
Pokrok Krompachy
0.76

Poprad creates 242% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 23 away

creates per match

Poprad
1.55
Pokrok Krompachy
0.61

allows per match

Poprad
0.90
Pokrok Krompachy
3.65

finishing

Poprad+0.00on par
Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poprad ↓

Pokrok Krompachy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Poprad or draw
91%
Poprad or Pokrok Krompachy
85%
Draw or Pokrok Krompachy
24%

Winning margin

Poprad wins by 2+
55%
Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Poprad 1+ goals
92%
Poprad 2+ goals
73%
Poprad 3+ goals
47%
Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals
53%
Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals
18%
Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Poprad (draw refunded)
90%
Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poprad at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.90 · 58 matches

Pokrok Krompachy away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poprad attack 1.55 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.60

Pokrok Krompachy attack 0.61 + Poprad defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Poprad scores more
76%
level
15%
Pokrok Krompachy scores more
9%

Poprad at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Poprad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Poprad vs Pokrok Krompachy

Poprad beat Pokrok Krompachy 5-1 in 3. liga - East on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadion NTC Poprad in Poprad.