Pokrok Krompachy 1–1 Poprad: Result & Stats

Pokrok Krompachy

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Poprad

4/23/2022

3. liga - East · East - 22Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Pokrok Krompachy35%

×Draw23%

Poprad42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pokrok KrompachyExpected goals in this matchPoprad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.73

Pokrok Krompachy

1.57

Poprad

1.73

Poprad creates 10% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 58 away

1.23

creates per match

1.22

2.23

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Pokrok Krompachy

1.23

Poprad

1.22

allows per match

Pokrok Krompachy

2.23

Poprad

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par

Poprad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pokrok Krompachy ↓

Poprad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Pokrok Krompachy or draw

58%

Pokrok Krompachy or Poprad

77%

Draw or Poprad

65%

Winning margin

Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+

17%

Poprad wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals

79%

Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals

46%

Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals

21%

Poprad 1+ goals

82%

Poprad 2+ goals

52%

Poprad 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)

46%

Poprad (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pokrok Krompachy at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

Poprad away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pokrok Krompachy attack 1.23 + Poprad defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.57

Poprad attack 1.22 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pokrok Krompachy scores more

35%

level

23%

Poprad scores more

42%

Poprad at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Poprad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff