Popayan 0–1 Deportivo Pereira: Result & Stats

Popayan

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Pereira

B. Castrillón 77'

8/5/2021

Copa Colombia · 3rd RoundEstadio Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Popayan37%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Pereira36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PopayanExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pereira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.27

Popayan

1.29

Deportivo Pereira

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 24 away

1.07

creates per match

1.17

1.36

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Popayan

1.07

Deportivo Pereira

1.17

allows per match

Popayan

1.36

Deportivo Pereira

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Popayan+0.00on par

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Popayan ↓

Deportivo Pereira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Popayan or draw

64%

Popayan or Deportivo Pereira

73%

Draw or Deportivo Pereira

63%

Winning margin

Popayan wins by 2+

16%

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Popayan 1+ goals

72%

Popayan 2+ goals

37%

Popayan 3+ goals

14%

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

72%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Popayan (draw refunded)

51%

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Popayan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Popayan attack 1.07 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.17 + Popayan defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Popayan scores more

37%

level

27%

Deportivo Pereira scores more

36%

Popayan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Popayan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

64'

B. Castrillón← D. Ramírez

64'

E. Valencia← A. Piedrahita

67'

67'

76'

77'

83'

E. Benítez← J. Pájaro

83'

J. Sadovnik← G. Díaz

88'

C. Ramírez← C. Garcés

Popayan

Deportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Guerrero

67'▲A. Montaño←▼J. Mafla

67'▲R. Angulo←▼E. Toloza

83'▲E. Benítez←▼J. Pájaro

83'▲J. Sadovnik←▼G. Díaz

Popayan substitutes

MontañoAnguloBenítezSadovnikTorresAguasRenteria

Manager: J. Artigas

64'▲B. Castrillón←▼D. Ramírez

64'▲E. Valencia←▼A. Piedrahita

76'▲R. Navarro←▼H. Rojas

88'▲C. Ramírez←▼C. Garcés

Deportivo Pereira substitutes

CastrillónValenciaNavarroRamírezLeónMosqueraMosquera