Deportivo Pereira 1–0 Popayan: Result & Stats

Deportivo Pereira

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Popayan

A. Quejada 71'

10/11/2016

Primera B · Round 31Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas (Pereira)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Deportivo Pereira58%

×Draw25%

Popayan16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PereiraExpected goals in this matchPopayan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.69

Deportivo Pereira

1.56

Popayan

0.69

Deportivo Pereira creates 126% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 123 away

1.59

creates per match

0.82

0.56

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.59

Popayan

0.82

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira

0.56

Popayan

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Popayan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Popayan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw

84%

Deportivo Pereira or Popayan

75%

Draw or Popayan

42%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

31%

Popayan wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

79%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

46%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

21%

Popayan 1+ goals

50%

Popayan 2+ goals

15%

Popayan 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

78%

Popayan (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.56 · 34 matches

Popayan away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.53 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.59 + Popayan defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Popayan attack 0.82 + Deportivo Pereira defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more

58%

level

25%

Popayan scores more

16%

Deportivo Pereira at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'

H. Sánchez← S. Bermúdez

71'

A. Quejada

73'

S. Vásquez← N. Ramírez

75'

E. Móvil← C. Mejía

79'

J. Vargas← J. Portilla

85'

D. Orozco← J. Vela

89'

D. Espinel← H. Reina