Popayan 1–0 Barranquilla: Result & Stats

Popayan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barranquilla

10/20/2025

Primera B · Clausura - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Popayan45%

×Draw28%

Barranquilla27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PopayanExpected goals in this matchBarranquilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.95

Popayan

1.30

Barranquilla

0.95

Popayan creates 37% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 135 away

0.99

creates per match

0.82

1.08

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Popayan

0.99

Barranquilla

0.82

allows per match

Popayan

1.08

Barranquilla

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Popayan+0.00on par

Barranquilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Popayan ↓

Barranquilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Popayan or draw

73%

Popayan or Barranquilla

72%

Draw or Barranquilla

55%

Winning margin

Popayan wins by 2+

20%

Barranquilla wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Popayan 1+ goals

73%

Popayan 2+ goals

37%

Popayan 3+ goals

14%

Barranquilla 1+ goals

61%

Barranquilla 2+ goals

25%

Barranquilla 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Popayan (draw refunded)

62%

Barranquilla (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Popayan at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.08 · 129 matches

Barranquilla away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.61 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Popayan attack 0.99 + Barranquilla defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.30

Barranquilla attack 0.82 + Popayan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Popayan scores more

45%

level

28%

Barranquilla scores more

27%

Popayan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Popayan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff