Barranquilla 1–1 Popayan: Result & Stats

Barranquilla

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Popayan

8/17/2024

Primera B · Clausura - 5Estadio Romelio Martínez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Barranquilla46%

×Draw27%

Popayan27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarranquillaExpected goals in this matchPopayan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.99

Barranquilla

1.38

Popayan

0.99

Barranquilla creates 39% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 130 away

1.21

creates per match

0.86

1.11

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Barranquilla

1.21

Popayan

0.86

allows per match

Barranquilla

1.11

Popayan

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barranquilla+0.00on par

Popayan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barranquilla ↓

Popayan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Barranquilla or draw

73%

Barranquilla or Popayan

73%

Draw or Popayan

54%

Winning margin

Barranquilla wins by 2+

22%

Popayan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Barranquilla 1+ goals

75%

Barranquilla 2+ goals

40%

Barranquilla 3+ goals

16%

Popayan 1+ goals

63%

Popayan 2+ goals

26%

Popayan 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Barranquilla (draw refunded)

63%

Popayan (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barranquilla at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 136 matches

Popayan away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.54 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barranquilla attack 1.21 + Popayan defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Popayan attack 0.86 + Barranquilla defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Barranquilla scores more

46%

level

27%

Popayan scores more

27%

Barranquilla at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Barranquilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff