Pontian Eagles 0–5 Adelaide Blue Eagles

Pontian Eagles

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Adelaide Blue Eagles

5/3/2025

South Australia State League 1 · Round 8Yalumba Drive Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Pontian Eagles20%

×Draw19%

Adelaide Blue Eagles62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pontian EaglesExpected goals in this matchAdelaide Blue Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

2.40

Pontian Eagles

1.29

Adelaide Blue Eagles

2.40

Adelaide Blue Eagles creates 86% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 53 away

1.00

creates per match

1.89

2.91

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Pontian Eagles

1.00

Adelaide Blue Eagles

1.89

allows per match

Pontian Eagles

2.91

Adelaide Blue Eagles

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pontian Eagles+0.00on par

Adelaide Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontian Eagles ↓

Adelaide Blue Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Pontian Eagles or draw

38%

Pontian Eagles or Adelaide Blue Eagles

81%

Draw or Adelaide Blue Eagles

80%

Winning margin

Pontian Eagles wins by 2+

8%

Adelaide Blue Eagles wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Pontian Eagles 1+ goals

72%

Pontian Eagles 2+ goals

37%

Pontian Eagles 3+ goals

14%

Adelaide Blue Eagles 1+ goals

91%

Adelaide Blue Eagles 2+ goals

69%

Adelaide Blue Eagles 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Pontian Eagles (draw refunded)

24%

Adelaide Blue Eagles (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontian Eagles at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.91 · 11 matches

Adelaide Blue Eagles away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.58 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontian Eagles attack 1.00 + Adelaide Blue Eagles defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Adelaide Blue Eagles attack 1.89 + Pontian Eagles defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Pontian Eagles scores more

20%

level

19%

Adelaide Blue Eagles scores more

62%

Adelaide Blue Eagles at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Adelaide Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff