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Adelaide Blue Eagles vs Pontian Eagles — South Australia State League 1 2021

Adelaide Blue Eagles
Adelaide Blue Eagles
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pontian Eagles
Pontian Eagles
7/28/2025South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 19Marden Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Adelaide Blue Eagles80%
×Draw12%
Pontian Eagles7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Blue Eagles
2.99
Pontian Eagles
0.82

Adelaide Blue Eagles creates 265% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 11 away

creates per match

Adelaide Blue Eagles
2.24
Pontian Eagles
0.36

allows per match

Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.29
Pontian Eagles
3.73

finishing

Adelaide Blue Eagles+0.00on par
Pontian Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Blue Eagles ↓

Pontian Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Adelaide Blue Eagles or draw
93%
Adelaide Blue Eagles or Pontian Eagles
88%
Draw or Pontian Eagles
20%

Winning margin

Adelaide Blue Eagles wins by 2+
61%
Pontian Eagles wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Adelaide Blue Eagles 1+ goals
95%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 2+ goals
79%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 3+ goals
56%
Pontian Eagles 1+ goals
56%
Pontian Eagles 2+ goals
20%
Pontian Eagles 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
92%
Pontian Eagles (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Blue Eagles at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

Pontian Eagles away — creates 0.36, concedes 3.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Blue Eagles attack 2.24 + Pontian Eagles defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.99

Pontian Eagles attack 0.36 + Adelaide Blue Eagles defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Adelaide Blue Eagles scores more
80%
level
12%
Pontian Eagles scores more
7%

Adelaide Blue Eagles at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Adelaide Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide Blue Eagles vs Pontian Eagles

Adelaide Blue Eagles beat Pontian Eagles 3-0 in South Australia State League 1 on July 28, 2025.

The match was played at Marden Sports Complex in Adelaide.