Pontevedra 0–1 Marino de Luanco: Result & Stats

Pontevedra

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Marino de Luanco

10/6/2024

League #875 · Group 1 - 6Estadio Municipal de Pasarón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Pontevedra52%

×Draw24%

Marino de Luanco24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PontevedraExpected goals in this matchMarino de Luanco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.05

Pontevedra

1.67

Marino de Luanco

1.05

Pontevedra creates 59% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 27 away

2.13

creates per match

1.22

0.88

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Pontevedra

2.13

Marino de Luanco

1.22

allows per match

Pontevedra

0.88

Marino de Luanco

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pontevedra+0.00on par

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra ↓

Marino de Luanco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pontevedra or draw

76%

Pontevedra or Marino de Luanco

76%

Draw or Marino de Luanco

48%

Winning margin

Pontevedra wins by 2+

28%

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Pontevedra 1+ goals

81%

Pontevedra 2+ goals

50%

Pontevedra 3+ goals

23%

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals

65%

Marino de Luanco 2+ goals

28%

Marino de Luanco 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra (draw refunded)

68%

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Marino de Luanco away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra attack 2.13 + Marino de Luanco defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.67

Marino de Luanco attack 1.22 + Pontevedra defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pontevedra scores more

52%

level

24%

Marino de Luanco scores more

24%

Pontevedra at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pontevedra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff