Marino de Luanco 0–0 Pontevedra: Result & Stats

Marino de Luanco

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pontevedra

2/16/2025

League #875 · Group 1 - 23Estadi Municipal de Miramar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Marino de Luanco27%

×Draw31%

Pontevedra42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marino de LuancoExpected goals in this matchPontevedra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.11

Marino de Luanco

0.83

Pontevedra

1.11

Pontevedra creates 34% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 16 away

0.85

creates per match

1.63

0.59

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Marino de Luanco

0.85

Pontevedra

1.63

allows per match

Marino de Luanco

0.59

Pontevedra

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Pontevedra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino de Luanco ↓

Pontevedra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–116%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Marino de Luanco or draw

58%

Marino de Luanco or Pontevedra

69%

Draw or Pontevedra

73%

Winning margin

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+

9%

Pontevedra wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals

56%

Marino de Luanco 2+ goals

20%

Marino de Luanco 3+ goals

5%

Pontevedra 1+ goals

67%

Pontevedra 2+ goals

30%

Pontevedra 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)

39%

Pontevedra (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino de Luanco at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.59 · 27 matches

Pontevedra away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino de Luanco attack 0.85 + Pontevedra defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83

Pontevedra attack 1.63 + Marino de Luanco defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Marino de Luanco scores more

27%

level

31%

Pontevedra scores more

42%

Pontevedra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pontevedra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff