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Pontevedra vs Las Palmas II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Pontevedra
Pontevedra
CANC
00:00
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
4/26/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Estadio Municipal de Pasarón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pontevedra59%
×Draw25%
Las Palmas II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontevedra
1.56
Las Palmas II
0.68

Pontevedra creates 129% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 15 away

creates per match

Pontevedra
1.31
Las Palmas II
0.40

allows per match

Pontevedra
0.95
Las Palmas II
1.80

finishing

Pontevedra+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pontevedra or draw
84%
Pontevedra or Las Palmas II
75%
Draw or Las Palmas II
41%

Winning margin

Pontevedra wins by 2+
31%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Pontevedra 1+ goals
79%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
46%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
21%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
49%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
15%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra (draw refunded)
78%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra attack 1.31 + Las Palmas II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Las Palmas II attack 0.40 + Pontevedra defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Pontevedra scores more
59%
level
25%
Las Palmas II scores more
16%

Pontevedra at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Pontevedra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pontevedra vs Las Palmas II — Match Preview

Pontevedra face Las Palmas II on April 26, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Pontevedra host Las Palmas II at Estadio Municipal de Pasarón.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.