Las Palmas II 1–2 Pontevedra: Result & Stats

Las Palmas II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Pontevedra

12/8/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Las Palmas II46%

×Draw30%

Pontevedra25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las Palmas IIExpected goals in this matchPontevedra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.81

Las Palmas II

1.22

Pontevedra

0.81

Las Palmas II creates 51% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 65 away

1.08

creates per match

1.00

0.62

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Las Palmas II

1.08

Pontevedra

1.00

allows per match

Las Palmas II

0.62

Pontevedra

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Pontevedra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas II ↓

Pontevedra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Las Palmas II or draw

75%

Las Palmas II or Pontevedra

70%

Draw or Pontevedra

54%

Winning margin

Las Palmas II wins by 2+

20%

Pontevedra wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Las Palmas II 1+ goals

70%

Las Palmas II 2+ goals

34%

Las Palmas II 3+ goals

12%

Pontevedra 1+ goals

56%

Pontevedra 2+ goals

19%

Pontevedra 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas II (draw refunded)

65%

Pontevedra (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas II at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Pontevedra away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas II attack 1.08 + Pontevedra defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Pontevedra attack 1.00 + Las Palmas II defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Las Palmas II scores more

46%

level

30%

Pontevedra scores more

25%

Las Palmas II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Las Palmas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff