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Pontevedra II vs Estradense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Pontevedra II
Pontevedra II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Estradense
Estradense
10/28/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio Municipal de Pasarón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pontevedra II32%
×Draw27%
Estradense41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontevedra II
1.14
Estradense
1.32

Estradense creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

creates per match

Pontevedra II
0.88
Estradense
1.24

allows per match

Pontevedra II
1.41
Estradense
1.39

finishing

Pontevedra II+0.00on par
Estradense+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra II ↓

Estradense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pontevedra II or draw
59%
Pontevedra II or Estradense
73%
Draw or Estradense
68%

Winning margin

Pontevedra II wins by 2+
13%
Estradense wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Pontevedra II 1+ goals
68%
Pontevedra II 2+ goals
32%
Pontevedra II 3+ goals
11%
Estradense 1+ goals
73%
Estradense 2+ goals
38%
Estradense 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra II (draw refunded)
44%
Estradense (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra II at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Estradense away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra II attack 0.88 + Estradense defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.14

Estradense attack 1.24 + Pontevedra II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pontevedra II scores more
32%
level
27%
Estradense scores more
41%

Estradense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Estradense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pontevedra II 2 – 0 Estradense

Pontevedra II beat Estradense 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Pasarón in Pontevedra.