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Estradense vs Pontevedra II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Estradense
Estradense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pontevedra II
Pontevedra II
3/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Estradense62%
×Draw22%
Pontevedra II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estradense
1.86
Pontevedra II
0.81

Estradense creates 130% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 17 away

creates per match

Estradense
1.31
Pontevedra II
0.71

allows per match

Estradense
0.91
Pontevedra II
2.41

finishing

Estradense+0.00on par
Pontevedra II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estradense ↓

Pontevedra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Estradense or draw
84%
Estradense or Pontevedra II
78%
Draw or Pontevedra II
38%

Winning margin

Estradense wins by 2+
37%
Pontevedra II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Estradense 1+ goals
84%
Estradense 2+ goals
55%
Estradense 3+ goals
28%
Pontevedra II 1+ goals
56%
Pontevedra II 2+ goals
19%
Pontevedra II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Estradense (draw refunded)
80%
Pontevedra II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estradense at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.91 · 111 matches

Pontevedra II away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estradense attack 1.31 + Pontevedra II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.86

Pontevedra II attack 0.71 + Estradense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Estradense scores more
62%
level
22%
Pontevedra II scores more
16%

Estradense at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Estradense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Estradense 2 – 1 Pontevedra II

Estradense beat Pontevedra II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 28, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada in A Estrada.