Pontevedra II 0–2 Celta de Vigo III: Result & Stats

Pontevedra II

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Celta de Vigo III

9/30/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Campo Municipal A Seca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pontevedra II28%

×Draw29%

Celta de Vigo III42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pontevedra IIExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.21

Pontevedra II

0.93

Celta de Vigo III

1.21

Celta de Vigo III creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 66 away

0.88

creates per match

1.00

1.41

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Pontevedra II

0.88

Celta de Vigo III

1.00

allows per match

Pontevedra II

1.41

Celta de Vigo III

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pontevedra II+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra II ↓

Celta de Vigo III →

0–012%

0–114%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Pontevedra II or draw

58%

Pontevedra II or Celta de Vigo III

71%

Draw or Celta de Vigo III

72%

Winning margin

Pontevedra II wins by 2+

10%

Celta de Vigo III wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Pontevedra II 1+ goals

61%

Pontevedra II 2+ goals

24%

Pontevedra II 3+ goals

Celta de Vigo III 1+ goals

70%

Celta de Vigo III 2+ goals

34%

Celta de Vigo III 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra II (draw refunded)

40%

Celta de Vigo III (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra II at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Celta de Vigo III away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra II attack 0.88 + Celta de Vigo III defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.93

Celta de Vigo III attack 1.00 + Pontevedra II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pontevedra II scores more

28%

level

29%

Celta de Vigo III scores more

42%

Celta de Vigo III at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Celta de Vigo III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Pontevedra II 0–2 Celta de Vigo III

Celta de Vigo III beat Pontevedra II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal A Seca in Pontevedra.

Pontevedra II vs Celta de Vigo III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Pontevedra II 0–2 Celta de Vigo III