Celta de Vigo III 4–2 Pontevedra II: Result & Stats

Celta de Vigo III

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Pontevedra II

2/18/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Celta de Vigo III63%

×Draw20%

Pontevedra II17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Celta de Vigo IIIExpected goals in this matchPontevedra II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.07

Celta de Vigo III

2.22

Pontevedra II

1.07

Celta de Vigo III creates 107% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

2.03

creates per match

0.71

1.44

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Celta de Vigo III

2.03

Pontevedra II

0.71

allows per match

Celta de Vigo III

1.44

Pontevedra II

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celta de Vigo III+0.00on par

Pontevedra II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo III ↓

Pontevedra II →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo III or draw

83%

Celta de Vigo III or Pontevedra II

80%

Draw or Pontevedra II

37%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo III wins by 2+

40%

Pontevedra II wins by 2+

Team goals

Celta de Vigo III 1+ goals

89%

Celta de Vigo III 2+ goals

65%

Celta de Vigo III 3+ goals

38%

Pontevedra II 1+ goals

66%

Pontevedra II 2+ goals

29%

Pontevedra II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo III (draw refunded)

79%

Pontevedra II (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo III at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

Pontevedra II away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo III attack 2.03 + Pontevedra II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.22

Pontevedra II attack 0.71 + Celta de Vigo III defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Celta de Vigo III scores more

63%

level

20%

Pontevedra II scores more

17%

Celta de Vigo III at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Celta de Vigo III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Celta de Vigo III 4–2 Pontevedra II

Celta de Vigo III beat Pontevedra II 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro in Vigo.

Celta de Vigo III vs Pontevedra II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Celta de Vigo III 4–2 Pontevedra II