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Pontevedra II vs CD Lugo B — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Pontevedra II
Pontevedra II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
CD Lugo B
CD Lugo B
3/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Campo Manolo Barreiro 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pontevedra II30%
×Draw27%
CD Lugo B43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontevedra II
1.07
CD Lugo B
1.34

CD Lugo B creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 94 away

creates per match

Pontevedra II
0.88
CD Lugo B
1.28

allows per match

Pontevedra II
1.41
CD Lugo B
1.27

finishing

Pontevedra II+0.00on par
CD Lugo B+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra II ↓

CD Lugo B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pontevedra II or draw
57%
Pontevedra II or CD Lugo B
73%
Draw or CD Lugo B
70%

Winning margin

Pontevedra II wins by 2+
11%
CD Lugo B wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Pontevedra II 1+ goals
66%
Pontevedra II 2+ goals
29%
Pontevedra II 3+ goals
9%
CD Lugo B 1+ goals
74%
CD Lugo B 2+ goals
39%
CD Lugo B 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra II (draw refunded)
41%
CD Lugo B (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra II at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

CD Lugo B away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.27 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra II attack 0.88 + CD Lugo B defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

CD Lugo B attack 1.28 + Pontevedra II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pontevedra II scores more
30%
level
27%
CD Lugo B scores more
43%

CD Lugo B at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CD Lugo B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pontevedra II 0 – 2 CD Lugo B

CD Lugo B beat Pontevedra II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Manolo Barreiro 2 in Pontevedra.