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CD Lugo B vs Pontevedra II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

CD Lugo B
CD Lugo B
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pontevedra II
Pontevedra II
10/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Campo de Fútbol A Cheda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CD Lugo B66%
×Draw21%
Pontevedra II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Lugo B
1.95
Pontevedra II
0.74

CD Lugo B creates 164% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 17 away

creates per match

CD Lugo B
1.48
Pontevedra II
0.71

allows per match

CD Lugo B
0.78
Pontevedra II
2.41

finishing

CD Lugo B+0.00on par
Pontevedra II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Lugo B ↓

Pontevedra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CD Lugo B or draw
87%
CD Lugo B or Pontevedra II
79%
Draw or Pontevedra II
34%

Winning margin

CD Lugo B wins by 2+
40%
Pontevedra II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CD Lugo B 1+ goals
86%
CD Lugo B 2+ goals
58%
CD Lugo B 3+ goals
31%
Pontevedra II 1+ goals
52%
Pontevedra II 2+ goals
17%
Pontevedra II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CD Lugo B (draw refunded)
83%
Pontevedra II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Lugo B at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.78 · 95 matches

Pontevedra II away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Lugo B attack 1.48 + Pontevedra II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.95

Pontevedra II attack 0.71 + CD Lugo B defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

CD Lugo B scores more
66%
level
21%
Pontevedra II scores more
13%

CD Lugo B at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "CD Lugo B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CD Lugo B 1 – 0 Pontevedra II

CD Lugo B beat Pontevedra II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol A Cheda in Lugo.