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Pontevedra II vs Bergantiños — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Pontevedra II
Pontevedra II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bergantiños
Bergantiños
4/20/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Campo Manolo Barreiro 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pontevedra II25%
×Draw28%
Bergantiños47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontevedra II
0.91
Bergantiños
1.36

Bergantiños creates 49% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 44 away

creates per match

Pontevedra II
0.88
Bergantiños
1.32

allows per match

Pontevedra II
1.41
Bergantiños
0.93

finishing

Pontevedra II+0.00on par
Bergantiños+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra II ↓

Bergantiños →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pontevedra II or draw
53%
Pontevedra II or Bergantiños
72%
Draw or Bergantiños
75%

Winning margin

Pontevedra II wins by 2+
9%
Bergantiños wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Pontevedra II 1+ goals
60%
Pontevedra II 2+ goals
23%
Pontevedra II 3+ goals
6%
Bergantiños 1+ goals
74%
Bergantiños 2+ goals
39%
Bergantiños 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra II (draw refunded)
35%
Bergantiños (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra II at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Bergantiños away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra II attack 0.88 + Bergantiños defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Bergantiños attack 1.32 + Pontevedra II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pontevedra II scores more
25%
level
28%
Bergantiños scores more
47%

Bergantiños at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bergantiños will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pontevedra II 2 – 1 Bergantiños

Pontevedra II beat Bergantiños 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Manolo Barreiro 2 in Pontevedra.