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Bergantiños vs Pontevedra II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Bergantiños
Bergantiños
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pontevedra II
Pontevedra II
12/3/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Estadio As Eiroas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bergantiños65%
×Draw21%
Pontevedra II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergantiños
1.93
Pontevedra II
0.76

Bergantiños creates 154% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bergantiños
1.44
Pontevedra II
0.71

allows per match

Bergantiños
0.80
Pontevedra II
2.41

finishing

Bergantiños+0.00on par
Pontevedra II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergantiños ↓

Pontevedra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bergantiños or draw
86%
Bergantiños or Pontevedra II
79%
Draw or Pontevedra II
35%

Winning margin

Bergantiños wins by 2+
39%
Pontevedra II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bergantiños 1+ goals
85%
Bergantiños 2+ goals
57%
Bergantiños 3+ goals
30%
Pontevedra II 1+ goals
53%
Pontevedra II 2+ goals
18%
Pontevedra II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bergantiños (draw refunded)
82%
Pontevedra II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergantiños at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Pontevedra II away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergantiños attack 1.44 + Pontevedra II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.93

Pontevedra II attack 0.71 + Bergantiños defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Bergantiños scores more
65%
level
21%
Pontevedra II scores more
14%

Bergantiños at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bergantiños will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bergantiños 2 – 0 Pontevedra II

Bergantiños beat Pontevedra II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio As Eiroas in Carballo.