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Pontevedra II vs Arosa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Pontevedra II
Pontevedra II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arosa
Arosa
11/25/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Campo Municipal A Seca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pontevedra II26%
×Draw27%
Arosa47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontevedra II
0.99
Arosa
1.44

Arosa creates 45% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 94 away

creates per match

Pontevedra II
0.88
Arosa
1.48

allows per match

Pontevedra II
1.41
Arosa
1.10

finishing

Pontevedra II+0.00on par
Arosa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra II ↓

Arosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pontevedra II or draw
53%
Pontevedra II or Arosa
73%
Draw or Arosa
74%

Winning margin

Pontevedra II wins by 2+
9%
Arosa wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Pontevedra II 1+ goals
63%
Pontevedra II 2+ goals
26%
Pontevedra II 3+ goals
8%
Arosa 1+ goals
76%
Arosa 2+ goals
42%
Arosa 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra II (draw refunded)
35%
Arosa (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra II at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Arosa away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra II attack 0.88 + Arosa defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.99

Arosa attack 1.48 + Pontevedra II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pontevedra II scores more
26%
level
27%
Arosa scores more
47%

Arosa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pontevedra II vs Arosa

Pontevedra II and Arosa drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal A Seca in Pontevedra.