Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Arosa vs Pontevedra II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arosa
Arosa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pontevedra II
Pontevedra II
4/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Estadio A Lomba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arosa65%
×Draw21%
Pontevedra II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arosa
1.96
Pontevedra II
0.77

Arosa creates 155% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 17 away

creates per match

Arosa
1.51
Pontevedra II
0.71

allows per match

Arosa
0.84
Pontevedra II
2.41

finishing

Arosa+0.00on par
Pontevedra II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arosa ↓

Pontevedra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Arosa or draw
86%
Arosa or Pontevedra II
79%
Draw or Pontevedra II
35%

Winning margin

Arosa wins by 2+
40%
Pontevedra II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Arosa 1+ goals
86%
Arosa 2+ goals
58%
Arosa 3+ goals
31%
Pontevedra II 1+ goals
54%
Pontevedra II 2+ goals
18%
Pontevedra II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Arosa (draw refunded)
82%
Pontevedra II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arosa at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.84 · 93 matches

Pontevedra II away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arosa attack 1.51 + Pontevedra II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.96

Pontevedra II attack 0.71 + Arosa defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Arosa scores more
65%
level
21%
Pontevedra II scores more
14%

Arosa at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Arosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arosa vs Pontevedra II

Arosa beat Pontevedra II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio A Lomba in Vilagarcía de Arousa.