Ponte Preta 3–0 Operario-PR: Result & Stats

Ponte Preta

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Operario-PR

Wallisson 64'

Élvis 37' (pen)

Mateus Silva 5'

7/30/2022

Serie B · Round 21Estádio Moisés Lucarelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Ponte Preta48%

×Draw25%

Operario-PR28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ponte PretaExpected goals in this matchOperario-PR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.19

Ponte Preta

1.63

Operario-PR

1.19

Ponte Preta creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.54

creates per match

1.12

1.26

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Ponte Preta

1.54

Operario-PR

1.12

allows per match

Ponte Preta

1.26

Operario-PR

1.72

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

Ponte Preta-0.43scores less

Operario-PR+0.32scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta ↓

Operario-PR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ponte Preta or draw

72%

Ponte Preta or Operario-PR

75%

Draw or Operario-PR

52%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

25%

Operario-PR wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

80%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

48%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

22%

Operario-PR 1+ goals

70%

Operario-PR 2+ goals

33%

Operario-PR 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

63%

Operario-PR (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 9 matches

Operario-PR away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.72 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta attack 1.54 + Operario-PR defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.63

Operario-PR attack 1.12 + Ponte Preta defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ponte Preta scores more

48%

level

25%

Operario-PR scores more

28%

Ponte Preta at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ponte Preta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Caique França

Ponte Preta · G

7.7

Match Events

-5'

-5'

5'

27'

35'

ElvisPenalty awarded

36'

Paulo Sérgio

36'

Lucas Mendes

37'

ÉlvisPenalty

41'

Felipe Amaral

46'

Wesley Fraga← Amaral

46'

Felipe Saraiva← Silvinho

46'

Leandrinho← André Lima

48'

Wesley Fraga

61'

Juninho Brandão← Paulo Sérgio

62'

Bernardo← Igor Formiga

64'

Wallisson↳ Artur

65'

Jean Carlos← Artur

66'

Cássio Gabriel← Élvis

75'

Rithely← Wallisson

75'

Jean Carlo← Paulo Victor

78'

Leandrinho

81'

Renie

84'

Arnaldo← Lucas Mendes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PonteOperario-PR

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots8

5Corners1

29Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots8

5On Target3

2Off Target3

4Blocked2

7Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

277Total Passes347

213Accurate Passes252

77%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

29Fouls11

4Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1