Operario-PR 1–2 Ponte Preta: Result & Stats

Operario-PR

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Ponte Preta

Marcelo 27'

Rodrigão 45+1'

André Luiz 22'

9/23/2021

Serie B · Round 25Estádio Germano Krüger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Operario-PR51%

×Draw26%

Ponte Preta23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Operario-PRExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.92

Operario-PR

1.52

Ponte Preta

0.92

Operario-PR creates 65% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.27

creates per match

0.78

1.05

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Operario-PR

1.27

Ponte Preta

0.78

allows per match

Operario-PR

1.05

Ponte Preta

1.78

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Operario-PR+0.30scores more

Ponte Preta-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Operario-PR ↓

Ponte Preta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Operario-PR or draw

77%

Operario-PR or Ponte Preta

74%

Draw or Ponte Preta

49%

Winning margin

Operario-PR wins by 2+

26%

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Operario-PR 1+ goals

78%

Operario-PR 2+ goals

45%

Operario-PR 3+ goals

20%

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

60%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

23%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Operario-PR (draw refunded)

69%

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Operario-PR at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.05 · 7 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.78 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Operario-PR attack 1.27 + Ponte Preta defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ponte Preta attack 0.78 + Operario-PR defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Operario-PR scores more

51%

level

26%

Ponte Preta scores more

23%

Operario-PR at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Operario-PR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Marcelo

Operario-PR · M

7.9

Match Events

17'

22'

27'

32'

43'

45+1'

Rodrigão↳ Moises

46'

Rafael Oller← Felipe Garcia

46'

Alan← Rafael Longuine

53'

Rodolfo

62'

Lucas Cândido← Fessin

62'

Iago← Richard Rodrigues

73'

Andre Luiz

73'

Andre Luiz

74'

Rodrigo Pimpão← Thomaz

75'

João Veras← Rodrigão

80'

Guedes← Marcelo Santos

83'

Schumacher← Marcelo

85'

Niltinho← Moises

85'

Yago← Marcos

89'

F. Sanches

89'

F. Sanches

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Operario-PRPonte

Overview

64%Possession36%

22Total Shots11

5Corners1

23Fouls20

Shots

22Total Shots11

10On Target5

9Off Target3

3Blocked3

9Inside Box5

13Outside Box6

Passing

64%Possession36%

439Total Passes257

344Accurate Passes169

78%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

23Fouls20

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards2

2Offsides0