Ponte Preta 1–0 Novorizontino: Result & Stats

Ponte Preta

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Novorizontino

6/15/2024

Serie B · Round 10Estádio Moisés Lucarelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Ponte Preta38%

×Draw30%

Novorizontino32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ponte PretaExpected goals in this matchNovorizontino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.97

Ponte Preta

1.10

Novorizontino

0.97

Ponte Preta creates 13% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 86 away

1.19

creates per match

0.93

1.01

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Ponte Preta

1.19

Novorizontino

0.93

allows per match

Ponte Preta

1.01

Novorizontino

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponte Preta+0.00on par

Novorizontino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta ↓

Novorizontino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ponte Preta or draw

68%

Ponte Preta or Novorizontino

70%

Draw or Novorizontino

62%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

16%

Novorizontino wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

67%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

30%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

10%

Novorizontino 1+ goals

62%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

25%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

55%

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.01 · 134 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.01 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta attack 1.19 + Novorizontino defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Novorizontino attack 0.93 + Ponte Preta defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ponte Preta scores more

38%

level

30%

Novorizontino scores more

32%

Ponte Preta at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ponte Preta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff