Novorizontino 2–1 Ponte Preta: Result & Stats

Novorizontino

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Ponte Preta

Neto Pessoa 37', 4'

Iago Dias 75'

10/1/2024

Serie B · Round 29Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Novorizontino49%

×Draw28%

Ponte Preta23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NovorizontinoExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.83

Novorizontino

1.36

Ponte Preta

0.83

Novorizontino creates 64% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 132 away

1.50

creates per match

0.80

0.86

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Novorizontino

1.50

Ponte Preta

0.80

allows per match

Novorizontino

0.86

Ponte Preta

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novorizontino+0.00on par

Ponte Preta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino ↓

Ponte Preta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Novorizontino or draw

77%

Novorizontino or Ponte Preta

72%

Draw or Ponte Preta

51%

Winning margin

Novorizontino wins by 2+

24%

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Novorizontino 1+ goals

74%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

39%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

16%

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

56%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

20%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

68%

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.86 · 84 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.23 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino attack 1.50 + Ponte Preta defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ponte Preta attack 0.80 + Novorizontino defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Novorizontino scores more

49%

level

28%

Ponte Preta scores more

23%

Novorizontino at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Novorizontino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Neto Pessoa

Novorizontino · F

8.2

Match Events

4'

Neto Pessoa↳ Rodolfo

8'

Rafael Donato

16'

ReversonGoal cancelled

27'

Éverton Brito← Sérgio Raphael

37'

Neto Pessoa↳ Reverson

43'

Marlon

46'

Renato Palm← Rafael Donato

46'

Iago Dias← Élvis

46'

João Gabriel← Igor Inocêncio

64'

Reverson

67'

Lucca← Rodolfo

67'

Lucas Cardoso← Pablo Dyego

72'

Igor Formiga← Rodrigo Soares

75'

Luis Fellipe

75'

Iago Dias↳ Gabriel Novaes

77'

Dudu← Marlon

79'

Joilson

85'

Ramon← Emerson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NovorizontinoPonte

Overview

35%Possession65%

17Total Shots11

2.32Expected Goals (xG)1.09

5Corners4

21Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots11

8On Target6

6Off Target2

3Blocked3

10Inside Box7

7Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

275Total Passes523

179Accurate Passes412

65%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

21Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4